Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 8.413292 9.660503 11.005154 12.559681 14.304255 16.198559 18.407933
2026-01-25 6.562639 8.238986 10.187330 12.607179 15.519106 18.896689 23.096368
2026-02-01 5.626697 7.484888 9.751367 12.696870 16.398625 20.869600 26.648084
2026-02-08 4.834711 6.781414 9.262339 12.620552 17.006894 22.496377 29.834083
2026-02-15 4.214907 6.196383 8.821060 12.502185 17.472880 23.885439 32.704925
2026-02-22 3.777347 5.796171 8.565588 12.575485 18.152789 25.543361 35.965154
2026-03-01 3.499305 5.580953 8.527590 12.916713 19.182963 27.683647 39.934366
2026-03-08 3.106789 5.152807 8.142138 12.722917 19.434592 28.752789 42.471112
2026-03-15 2.677752 4.621625 7.554086 12.177401 19.128621 29.002980 43.848228
2026-03-22 2.521266 4.498421 7.561330 12.504794 20.096040 31.082254 47.881689
2026-03-29 2.360658 4.350759 7.514381 12.737359 20.922291 32.980407 51.718971
2026-04-05 2.149065 4.096182 7.275006 12.646296 21.239474 34.129369 54.489358
2026-04-12 1.945802 3.839600 7.017054 12.514607 21.496040 35.215510 57.242919
2026-04-19 1.789013 3.649441 6.853315 12.522248 21.968232 36.645178 60.571842
2026-04-26 1.665385 3.506034 6.754828 12.625502 22.589513 38.318280 64.323895
2026-05-03 1.524624 3.315805 6.558217 12.544610 22.896867 39.501942 67.349075
2026-05-10 1.393037 3.129241 6.351771 12.428605 23.131429 40.568382 70.216384
2026-05-17 1.300324 3.009942 6.257279 12.500909 23.682905 42.160414 73.972363
2026-05-24 1.250064 2.972033 6.310589 12.840581 24.708584 44.564429 79.123924
2026-05-31 1.138591 2.794390 6.083459 12.647714 24.785095 45.387530 81.703628
2026-06-07 0.998565 2.539742 5.685211 12.105070 24.203311 45.068643 82.362223
2026-06-14 0.963870 2.514599 5.740954 12.430745 25.207037 47.488218 87.699449
2026-06-21 0.921618 2.467911 5.748855 12.662102 26.044995 49.647825 92.661453